Don't think the problem is all hype... However, a there are some obvious weaknesses that Y2K investors may be overlooking...
If the problem is as severe as some say, there are too many bugs to fix for too few programmers. Great for programmers, but not great for Y2K contracting body shops.
(1) programmer wages will skyrocket, increasing costs thus reducing profit margins for Y2K companies.
(2) Experienced programmers will jump ship to better offers, making it impossible for Y2K companies to complete projets on time. This is not good for earnings, this also may generate lawsuits.
(3) Poorly trained programmers will be used, making it impossible for Y2K companies to complete projects on time. Same as above..
(4) Publicity will cause hype and wild speculative gyrations in share prices. "Buy and hold" makes little sense here. Short term traders may do well.
(5) Maximum hype does not lead to maximum Y2K stock price, but market crash. (If people really start believing that computer failures will cause problems in bourses, banking, insurance, treasury, currencies, trade, ... they will panic and dump their stocks.) |
