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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!
LGND 202.90-1.7%Nov 28 12:59 PM EST
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To: tom pope who wrote (31539)3/29/2005 11:40:05 AM
From: biostruggle  Read Replies (1) of 32384
 
If you assume Robinson will continue to burn money in the NLSC Targretin trials, even though the data demonstrated total ineffectiveness, and going out to 2007-2009 and assuming partner drugs come thru, one gets a discounted value of between 6-22. Wide variance because of timing of when drugs come to market and how long takes to ramp to significant revenue.

Any negative finding in accounting issues will give Torts actionable offense and pretty much insure a cost of 100-200 mil to ligand. This will place Ligand with death spiral in 2007 when cv debt is due.

Unfortunately as investor in this company, I would have to say the risks are much larger than the rewards.

I'm looking for the exits, hopefully at a little higher price.

Robinson needs to go and Ligand needs to structure itself to be profitable, stop most in house trials, so stock price can get above 7 and force cv bond to convert this year.
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