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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 153.96+0.7%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (27771)3/30/2005 8:14:47 AM
From: Pam  Read Replies (1) of 60323
 
MU Conf Call:

I listened to the MU CC last night. They said they will start 2Gb 90nm flash o/p this quarter around 3-5k wafers/week. They will also have 4Gb (dual chip) and 8Gb (quad chip solution). It is not clear whether they are 200mm or 300mm wafers but my guess is 200mm wafers. They also have an aggressive roadmap for the introduction of 4Gb SLC at 70nm later this year and at the low-end they will have 1Gb standalone chips to address the markets that Samsung and Toshiba/Sandisk would neglect. Currently Nand is the least profitable for them but that could change once the vol ramps up.

Personally, I think they are running behind right now and they will not have much of an impact this year. In terms of costs they cannot match the cost structure of MLC or an advanced process. Having said that, if there is a shortage they can make some money and take-up some marketshare else they will lose money. Financially, they have about a 1.13B in cash but they have debt also of 910MM so all Capex for new plant will have to be funded from C/F's or borrow more and this may not be the opportune time with their stock languishing. Also, they will have litigation issues with Nand to deal with.

In Summary, MU is not a threat this year but this could change next year. Although, I think we will see another drop in flash prices later this year that will make it harder for newer players to make money yet they have to keep spending money to move forward with latest processes if they are serious about participating in this business. Would like to hear other opinions.

-Pam
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