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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 153.96+0.7%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
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To: Pam who wrote (27792)3/30/2005 9:18:59 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (2) of 60323
 
Personally, I think they are running behind right now and they will not have much of an impact this year. In terms of costs they cannot match the cost structure of MLC or an advanced process.

Overall, I thought that Microns comments/results were pretty good for Sandisk. They did take a hit to gross margins during the quarter but it was actually smaller than expected considering the declines in DRAM ASP's. It also doesnt seem like they are accelerating their ramp up of NAND flash.

Can anyone remember if Micron has ever commented about adopting MLC?

If not, I think they are going to have problems in NAND. They either need process leadership, MLC, or royalties. Without any of the three, they dont have much chance to really compete. Their cost structure isnt going to include depreciated fabs like it does with image sensors.....NAND production requires cutting edge fabs/processes. I also hope that Sandisk eventually goes after them for NAND royalties. Hard to believe that Toshiba could actually give them full access to NAND patents. After all, if Samsung pays Sandisk royalties, why wouldnt Micron?

FWIW, I am less worried about the next couple of quarters than I was going into the call. If Samsung gives similar types of comments (no increased move of DRAM to NAND), I think we are set up for a tight NAND market until the end of the year.

Slacker
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