Not sure how your math worked out, but if he drives 25K miles at 25 miles a gallon, then yes, he used 1K gallons. However, the Prius gets 50 mpg, so he could very well have saved himself 500 gallons.
He wasn't talking about a Prius but rather a Honda Accord Hybrid. Which gets MPG (city/hwy) 30/37
Let's say the average car gets 25 mpg, which is way too optimistic.
It probably is optimistic for the average car, but not for the average new car.
Let's say that everyone buys a Prius that gets 50 mpg.
I suppose that Oliver Sacks (the author of the article you posted) has to go ahead and sell his hybrid even though it is new.
It is unrealalistic to expect everyone to get a hybrid, but if we ever had a situation where everyone did have a hybrid, they would include hybrid sports cars, luxury cars, and SUVs. You wouldn't have 200 million Priuses each getting 50mpg. Replacing a new Honda Accord with a new Honda Accord Hybrid might move you from 25 mpg to 35 mpg, not 50 mpg.
I used the Accord for comparison because there is a hybrid and a non hybrid version unlike the Prius. You could also compare the Civic.
autos.yahoo.com
autos.yahoo.com
So if you want to spend an extra $6,000 and give up 30HP you can go from 32 mpg city / 38 mpg hwy to 46 mpg city / 51 mpg hwy.
If the average replacement of a car occurs every 10 years, then all 200 million cars would be replaced over the next 10 years anyway
If the average replacement is every 10 years that means that everyone who takes longer than average takes longer than 10 years to replace their car. Also consider used cars. If you buy new and sell after say 8 years someone else probably buys it and drives it. To replace 99.9% of all cars would take decades. We might replace more than 50% in 10 years, but no where near 100%.
so why not to a Prius?
Because a Prius isn't what everyone wants. Your only going to get a situation where most cars on the road are hybrids, years after most models offered for sale are hybrids. Maybe most cars on the road will be hybrids (or some other alternative to the current norm) by 2025 or 2030 but not in 10 years.
Note that I have nothing against hybrids. My next car is unlikely to be one, but my car after that might be. I just don't think hybrids are going to quickly have a massive impact. Changes on this scale take a lot of time.
Tim |
