Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: energyplay who wrote (61476)	4/2/2005 7:13:37 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Hello EP, <<How low could oil prices go ? The US has a flat yield curve and currently high oil prices - both formulas for a recession. Iraq could stablize soon (another election and accelerated US withdrawal plus more "international" supervision), and get back to about 80% of prewar production in a few months. If much Asian growth goes near flat, then oil in the $30 range would be very possible - if only for about 6 months or so>> Them are certainly the expectations, and my bet is ... (a) US recession will simply remove excess and imbalance from around the world, but otherwise OK, except for J6P's very own debt-ly circumstance, which will feel like, for all practical purpose, a depression; (b) Iraq will go from bad to worse, and other oil producing countries will go from OK to bad; and (c) Asian oil demand will only hiccup, and then move right along as before, upward. Chugs, Jay

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