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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: TRUE_TRUTH who wrote (41312)4/2/2005 11:08:30 PM
From: XoFruitCake  Read Replies (1) of 206180
 
I don't think anyone know for sure when the cycle will end. The bull and bear argument in this board really is all about timing. Most of us understand the demand destruction concept and know China is the pivot that can move the oil market to either side. I don't think the GS piece move the physical market. All it does is moving the oil and oil service stock and get everyone talk about the oil market. The oil future look promising (they are all high 40 and 50 for the next few years). When you look at the oil inventory, you have to factor into the gas/diesel/HO inventory as well. The oil inventory is higher by 8% or so compare to 5 years average but the end product are all lower if you factor into the higher daily usage. It seems the gasoline story will continue to dominate the market for the next few months. There are at least a couple of big refinery that is offline in the next month (BP has one for turnaround that is over 200k bbl and there is one in Parague that is offline for a week for power shutdown). And then there is the potential strike in Nigeria on 4/11. When you factor into the changing spec in both US and Europe gasoline. There is going to be chaos in gasoline market and put more focus on the oil supply/demand situation for the next few month. By July, we will be looking at HO/HU situation and will see where we are... My only puppy is VLO so I am bias...
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