Hello Steve,
>>Too bad I couldn't just skip the last 200+ wasted posts about the
> "merger" ... I don't see it happening.<<
>
> Mr Lemon, PMFJI but this statement is typical of Novell.
But this statement did not come from Novell ... it came from me. And it was based on my observations and opinion of the situation. My opinion was not based on anything other than my own logic in evaluating the situation.
It appears to me that very few people have invested in Novell for anything other than a good jump in stock price and continuing growth. I'm not sure that I understand the logic of selling out to a larger company to be "absorbed" into a bigger machine.
I haven't had the math spelled out for me (and I would love to learn this) but it doesn't appear that an aquisition would mean incredible returns to investors. I saw the 1-to-8 numbers being speculated. What kind of return would this provide to the long term investors in Novell? As I have bought Novell stock continuously since 1987 what would be the benefit to me? And if the company is truly on to something with BorderManager, NAL, NDS, Moab, Wolf Mountain, and other technologies then is it worth a try to make the company more valuable before selling?
I'm going to guess that this is a "risk analysis" game and that we could go for the "bird in the hand" solution, but I'm not sure that's the game that's being played here.
> Most folks here would likely have been happy campers if any of the
> other buyout attempts had occurred.
Over the years I think that many things could have occurred ... and that we might not be where we are if a previous aquisition had occurred. But I also believe that we would not have the opportunities before us if those aquisitions had occurred.
In trying to understand this better, are you saying that "for all shareholders" an aquisition by a major player would be a good thing right now? How is this quantified?
> How do you account for the reasonably reputable source of the most
> recent rumor? Could've been this or could have been that right?
Reputable source? And that source was ... ?
I personally am sometimes appalled at what the media will do for a quick buck. Propaganda. Propagate what the advertisers want. Don't rock the boat. It's amazing to me that some editors allow their publications to become the "National Enquirer" of technology. But it's even more amazing that people do not question what is said more often. Our culture has evolved into an interesting state ...
> OK, one time I buy, a couple of times maybe, but these buyout
> rumors are becoming a part of daily life with Novell.
I'm sure that some people are interested in what Novell has. But what is your price? How much is enough? And what does Novell specifically have to do to make *not* being aquired more attractive? Is there a price? A dollar figure?
Again, I believe that this is a risk analysis game and the upper management of Novell has to decide what deal to take. I'm sure that some people would be very upset if Novell was sold and the hierarchical cache marketplace turned into a multi-billion dollar opportunity.
> Face it, it's the investors turn...a buyout by one or two selected
> companies would be by far Novell's best possible option, both in
> terms of shareholder value and the companies destiny.
Could you please explain this to me in several factual points? I'm not asking as a direct challenge, but for my own education. I can be convinced and would like to better understand this "best possible option" in more detail.
What are the real numbers for all shareholders with respect to "shareholder value" and explain the promise of a better "destiny" for the company.
> Your continued confidence is admirable and appreciated, but your
> obvious bias towards remaining independent is wrong IMO, and could
> be a factor in lurkers decisions to buy this nightmare.
My bias about independence is simply a lack of understanding the logic and actual dollar figures. I'm hearing from you that this is a "no brainer" but I still don't understand it. I have been accused of being somewhat stupid, but I'm sure there are others here who would like to better understand this "obvious" solution. I want to make money also!
> Your votes of confidence over the last year or so have not rewarded
> investors (other than a select few and the shorts) to date.
I don't know ... I was pretty amazed that we hit 10 ... and that we held ground through the announcement of the earnings. It appears that other have some sort of confidence.
And I will say that I have continued to see changes that I felt were necessary for success to occur. And I see major changes in technology that are evolving quickly, and I see Novell preparing to capitalize on these.
But we could blow it ... I just know that a lot of people are working hard not to!
> If I may ask, what's you're prediction for Q4?
I'm afraid this is a touchy area. I do not claim to have the abilities of Salah or Jim to forecast these numbers. I'm very impressed by those who specialize in this field and the way that they evaluate. I have learned a lot over the last year from people such as these, and yourself.
But I am exposed to parts of information (due to an involvement with sales) that distort my perspective. I might get a feel for some numbers but have no idea about others. Because of this I don't feel that it's appropriate for me to publically "guess" ... and that's all it would be.
I would, however, be very interested in learning more about how the aquisition of Novell, by some company, at some price, would effect my holdings! If it would truly make me money, and provide a positive destiny for the company, the employees, and the technology ... then I can be convinced!
> sf
Scott C. Lemon |
