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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (227595)4/3/2005 8:11:57 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1582623
 
Well, I don't think there will be a civil war. We'll pull out only if the situation looks stable.

I thought the whole point of not making a pre announcement of withdrawal was that it would give the insurgents incentive to keep going.

The concern about civil war has always been a potential problem in Iraq since the time when three different sub groups were brought together artificially to form a country. The Kurds and the Shi'ites have the greatest incentive to work together and yet, they are having problems. Imagine if and when they bring the Sunnis into the mix.

If the Sunni clerics are successful in getting the Sunnis involved in the gov't and involved in the military and police, then the situation will stabilize. It is the Sunni's collaboration with the foreign insurgents that is making all of this so difficult. If the Sunnis stop supporting the insurgents, then things will stabilize very quickly, because the insurgents will get ratted out. Then we'll be able to leave in more quickly.

Sunnis once ruled the country. Under the new arrangement, they will be forced to be subservient to both the Kurds and the Shi'ites. You might understand why that is not incentive to stop their warring ways and join the party.

ted
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