Oil continues to look strong here, hitting all-time highs again:
futuresource.com
But the dollar is looking stronger:
futuresource.com
Index futures are about flat right now.
I anticipated that last week a rally would be turned back from either the descending 20 sma or slightly higher at the descending 50 sma a little above that; as it turned out, it was the 20 sma. QQQQ opened exactly on the 20 sma ($36.84), traded up a bit briefly, then it was all downhill:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b20][vc60]&pref=G
139.142.147.22
Based on the medium-term and long-term regression channels, I think we are in for some selling early in the week down to the lower rail (about $35.65), followed by a weak rally that will again get turned back at either the 20 sma, or more likely, the 50 sma, which will be just about $37 or slightly lower by that time. This level also constitutes significant chart resistance.
139.142.147.218
From there, QQQQ should sell off down to the lower regression channel rail that defines the long-term trend.
139.142.147.218
Note that this rail, currently at $35 and rising slowly at a rate of $0.50/month (or about $0.125/week or $0.025/day, assuming 20 trading days/month), constitutes powerful long-term support, sits currently just about on long-term chart support, and so represents a very likely reversal point.
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