Well, Marshall went from the "q" word to the "d"--for disaster--word without a stumble.
In the interim from a year ago, we have had a phenomenally successful election, a turnover of sovereingty, increasing signs that the Sunnis are coming into the governmental fold, a hellacious reduction in attacks and deaths, a benign spillover benefit into Lebanon, and Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.
I am of the opinion that Fallujah broke the insurgency's back.
Yes, I'd say that Marshall's record for being wrong is on a par with Krugman's.
Oh, sure, I suppose there is still the remote possibility that things could go wrong still, but I doubt it. The worst is clearly and unequivocally over. Iraqis are sick of war, they want to get along with their lives and democracy. In about 18 to 24 months, we'll see them take over true responsibility for their country, start to develop their oil for much needed infrastructure development, etc.
When that happens, Marshall and Krugman will still be looking for the worst yet to come, not at all sorry that they didn't recognize that the insurgents' best shot was taken immediately before 1/31/05. |
