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To: Road Walker who wrote (180625)4/4/2005 4:27:23 PM
From: Saturn V  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Ref string of "new business" failures.....I'm STILL really excited by WiMax... but it's been pretty quiet lately

I doubt that you are going to see significant profit from WiMax in the next two years. New businesses take a very long time to become major profit centers, if at all.

A little bit of history. Intel pioneered the microprocessor in the early 70's amid much hype. However Intel did not make much money on microprocessor chips despite the great success. The volumes were too low and just paid off the development and marketing expenses. But Intel made lots of money selling Development Systems for microprocessors, and sold lots of highly profitable memories along with the microprocessor. The joke was that Intel would give you the microprocessor free if you bought the memory from Intel, since memory was extremely profitable. However in the 80's with the coming of the IBM PC, the microprocessor volumes exploded and became extremely profitable. It was more than a ten year wait from initial introduction to the gusher.

Intel pioneered the Ethernet for computer networking in 1981. It was not a significant revenue stream until the 1990's, and even then it was a commodity business and the profits were probably meager. However Ethernet made possible Computer Networking, which destroyed the lock of mainframe computers in the corporate world, and dramatically increased the sales of desktop computers and microprocessors. The Ethernet initiative itself probably made a little bit of money, but the overall payoff was enormous due to the increased sales of computers.

In a similar fashion it is not clear if the WiMax business will be a gusher. That depends upon the competitors. It could become a commodity. But like the Ethernet effort there should be a big payoff due to increased sales of computers particularly in the developing world.
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