DVD-ROM sales projected to pass CD-ROM sales in 2000...............
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DVD-ROM AND DVD-RAM EXPECTED TO REPLACE CD-ROM BY 2000; MARKET PROGNOSTICATORS INDICATE SMALL WINDOW FOR CD-R
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Multimedia developers opting to put content on CD-ROM need to take a serious look at DVD-ROM soon because market watchers expect the media format to surpass the 680 MB disc by 2000.
At the same time, expect the write-once CD-R market to dry up by the turn of the millennium as the more flexible rewritable CD-RW drive takes hold.
That's the word from the latest research by Disk/Trend, International Data Corp. (IDC) and other market researchers.
According to Disk/Trend, the worldwide optical disc market should jump to 106 million units in 2000, up from the 1997 estimate of 69 million units, generating revenue of $10 billion. For CD-ROM drives, the company estimates 66 million units will be sold in 1997, although sales will begin to decline in 1999 and fall below DVD-ROM sales by 2000.
Disk/Trend expects 500,000 DVD-ROM drives to ship this year.
Writable drives, which reached 1.4 million units shipped in 1996, will jump nearly three-fold to 4.7 million units by 2000. Disk/Trend estimates CD-RW and DVD-RAM drives will replace the write-one, CD-R in the next few years.
Disk/Trend's numbers jive largely with figures from IDC. Wolfgang Schlichting, an analyst with IDC, estimates CD-ROM drive shipments will drop to 40 million units in 2000 from his 1997 estimate of 61 million units. Meanwhile, DVD-ROM will surge to 89 million units in 2000 from today's estimate of less than a million.
On the writable side, Schlichting said the 2.4 million unit sales of CD-R drives estimated for this year will evaporate by 2000 because of a market transition to CD-RW. Unit shipments of the rewritable media format are expected to see a nearly 20-fold growth and reach 9.1 million units.
"DVD-ROM will replace CD-ROM in the 1998-to-2000 time frame," Schlichting said. "CD-RW will replace CD-R starting now and will be completed by 2000."
Meanwhile, DVD-RAM drives should start to ramp after 1999 and become a mainstream product by the end of 2000 with 3.7 million units.
"Keep in mind that there are still format discussions out there," he said. "This figure would include no alternative recordable DVD."
If another format does emerge, such as the alternate DVD-RAM spec being put forth by Sony Corp., Philips Electronics NV or NEC Corp.'s multimedia video file, Schlichting expects to see a temporary slowdown of the market. (see MMW, Aug. 18, p. 7.)
"By 2001, one or the other format will be most popular," Schlichting said.
Philips' Two Cents
Media manufacturers report that they will pull back from the CD-ROM market once the high-capacity and rewritable drives catch hold.
But that could take a while.
"Even if you look at the most optimistic numbers, t's going to be three or four years before there's a significant installed base of DVD units," said Robert van Eijk, director of marketing at Philips Key Modules "Everyone's looking for DVD to take off, but it's no secret that it's happening much slower than most people expected. The only market that's growing right now is the CD-R and CD-RW market."
van Eijk is counting on the installed base of CD-ROM drives to push the CD-R and RW market while DVD units attract a following. He expects the company to ship more than 1 million CD-R and CD-RW drives this year. (Disk/Trend, 650-961-6209; IDC, 508/935-4012; Hitachi, 415/244-7630; Philips, 408/453-7008.) |
