re: [" Is there any useful information in your post ? "]
I guess that depends on what your definition of "useful" is ?
...and "useful" to whom ?
It seems that anything that is not usefull to pimping Matt Simmons Peak Oil Thesis - 10-20 years Early and for the now 3rd Oilpatch Cycle...is not "useful".
But, if you are a believer in the "7 degrees of Kevin Bacon" syndrome... then yes; there was something very, very "useful" to any "realists" in my post.
Iraq's massive, untouched, unexplored, low-hanging fruit as Oil Analyst Fadel Gheit so aptly referred to it... has massive upside production capacity and supply upside for OPEC and the markets.
Iraq's 6 to 7 Million BPD Production Potential will bring a couple of million more BPD to market as investments are made in their infastructure - probably coming online just about the time China crack's and the Fed Rate Hikes combined with Ramping Gas Prices and Tightening Monetary Policy... will create a flood of over-supply on the global market:
bakerinstitute.org
...of course; that seems to be a conveniently forgotten fact with the Simmonsites & Permabulls.
As is ANWR's probable 1 M+ BPD potential (500K is the Prudhoe Bay-ish conservative low-ball estimate/1.5 M BPD is the "whisper" number amongst BIG OIL).
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yahoo.reuters.com
"I've been doing this for 22 years and I've never seen anything like this," said OIL analyst Ken Miller at Purvin & Gertz in Houston.
"I view this as a very unstable situation."
Last week the U.S. government said the nation had 214.4 million barrels of gasoline, or 6 percent above year ago levels. The supply of crude OIL -- after growing for five weeks straight and by more than 17 million barrels -- was 314.7 million barrels, or 9 percent above year ago levels.
< how is this possible PermaBulls ?>
<how can production be collapsing and>
<demand be ramping and there be >
<a global refining capacity crisis>
<and yet we somehow keep building gas and>
< crude oil inventory supplies !?!?!>
< .....HOW ? - HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE BULLS ? >
< answer this & I'll jump up and kiss my own A$$>
< it's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE >
< EXPLAIN IT ........>
"There's no shortage of crude and no shortage of products," said Miller of Purvin & Gertz, adding that "OIL prices are $10-$15 above where they should be."
Miller conceded that global refining capacity is tight and that OPEC was caught off guard by the surge in global demand to about 84 million barrels a day. But he said the industry is responding.
"Basically, it's all speculatively driven, there is no shortage of gasoline, the market over the last several months, has moved in a counter direction from the fundamentals," said Miller.
*In fact, net long positions of noncommercial gasoline speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange were 40,505 for the week ending March 22, well above the 8,066 net longs in the beginning of the year, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
< *thank you chinton >
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PS: re: Governmental Market Manipulation
From a great Bullish Oil Investor Site...very pro Simmons:
< a conspiracty theory extremist must have snuck in from the woodpile>
financialsense.com
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How about we get a view on Oil Supply/Demand and Global Economic Fundamentals from a Neutral Source... how about India:
indiadaily.com
"Let us analyze why oil price may stabilize contrary to all expectations. India, China and US are the three biggest users of oil and related products. All of them are major importers.
China has major problems in front of the country. The banking corruptions are very serious. The Government is capable and probably will hide these problems for a long time. But they have another new problem, which can really be the economic killer. More than 9 million Chinese living mainly in coastal provinces face drinking water shortages due to the worst drought to affect parts of China in 50 years, the China Daily reported on April 4th. The drought also could hurt spring planting of rice in the south and wheat in the north. Hainan is one of the worst hit regions. Food is an important commodity in that part of the world. In India and China economies are linked to harvest and crop yield levels in any year. If the Chinese economy even sets back mildly, the oil will collapse to $35 to 40 per barrel.
The American economy is facing anemic job creation. That is why the long end of the bond market is telling us that the economy is extremely weak and will collapse the moment the extremely easy monetary environment is neutralized by the Federal Reserve.
Indian economy now depends on American companies exporting their jobs to India. If American economy falters, Indian economy not only will go in a recession due to lack of outsourcing contracts, there will be massive social problems due to very high unemployment among educated young youth.
If Indian economy tanks, it will be equally serious like in China...
The OPEC, the Russians and the Canadians are pumping crude at their best possible levels.
All are busy expanding capacity of pumping and refining crude oil. Russia averaged oil output of 9.3 million barrels per day in the first three months of 2005, 3.5 percent higher than the first three months of 2004
*If the demand slacks, the market will be flooded with oil and gas. "
cont -
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*** This is the "if" that is really a "when" -
(read) WHEN the demand slacks, the market will be flooded with oil and gas.
Tic'Toc`
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Once again; Crude Oil does not rise (especially artifically) within an Economic, or Geopolitical Vacumn....India understands...why can't the PermaBulls ? |
