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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41455)4/6/2005 7:58:07 PM
From: CommanderCricket  Read Replies (1) of 206325
 
Slider,

Let this bug try to answer your questions - all in my jaded opinion.

1. We are in a new era/super spike - Demand Driven Cycle.

No - I don't believe we are, however supply is much tighter now than it has been as OPEC no longer has millions of bbls of spare capacity, specifically light crude.

2. We have arrived here and now - into PEAK OIL production and supply rollover ala Matt Simmons rehash of Hubberts Peak for the 3rd consecutive Oil Cycle.

No - We have not arrived at peak oil for crude, however we are very close for light sweet. Plenty of medium and heavy crudes available.

3. We have a Global Refining Crisis....a Crisis I say !

No - we do not have global refining crises. It's tight but price will resolve this problem as more refineries retool to handle heavier crudes.

4. We are damm lucky the government starting filling the SPR back when oil was in the 30's instead of now. We'll need that oil someday.

And finally, regarding the speculative bubble?

No way! not even close...

Ask me again next year

The bug
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