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Technology Stocks : Stratex Networks, Inc. (STXN)

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To: Rob Preuss who wrote (1619)4/7/2005 12:05:03 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 1762
 
Hi Rob,
The gross margin expansion on these estimates look very aggressive to me. While it would be wonderful to see this type of performance from STXN, I certainly don't expect it. Also, as sales increase, expenses will increase due to additional commissions and some (hopefully slight) overhead expansion as they will need stronger support for the new product line.

The concept is fine but the numbers look a bit like a pie-in-the-sky guess. Obviously, if STXN can earn $0.27 eps in FY06, the stock will probably do a triple or better. I think this is asking way too much. A $3 target for 2005 calendar year end is very realistic, as the Eclipse line starts to blossom.

The way I look at STXN, they are in the very early spring season with Eclipse. We don't know if there is another frost warning waiting or if the weather will continue to improve from here. My guess is that summer won't arrive until mid-2006, at the earliest.

Cautiously optimistic,
mh
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