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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: TimF who wrote (228240)4/8/2005 12:05:28 AM
From: combjelly  Read Replies (1) of 1577040
 
"Reagan and Pope John Paul II both played a role."

Sure they did. But the biggest factor was that the economics weren't working out anymore. Reagan had supplied smart weapons to the mujahadin(primarily the Stinger and TOW). That showed the Soviets their investment in tanks and helicopters was insufficient. Like any military, the Soviet military was looking at the last war, and their last war was WWII. Based on their experience, tanks and flying tanks, like the Hind, was the way to go. The lesson of "if it can be seen, it can be killed" hadn't sunk in. Afghanistan provided that lesson.

If John Paul II had been Pope 10 years before, he wouldn't have had a strong of an impact on the USSR. Poland very well may have risen up, but they would have been crushed as completely as the Czechs were during the "Prague Spring". Or, for that matter, the Hungarians. Poland made their stand at a time when the USSR was vulnerable. If they had tried it earlier, they would have been yet another footnote in history. Like the poor suckers involved in The Bay of Pigs.

Remember that Gorby was KGB. He might have been more realistic than many of his cohorts, but he still was a spook. Glasnost and Peristroika didn't grow out of idealism, it was very pragmatic. The USSR had worked themselves into a position of "use it or lose it". And winning had suddenly become obvious as an unlikely outcome. Gorby represented the faction that was trying to salvage as much as they could. Idealism wasn't even on the menu.
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