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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: orkrious who wrote (30315)4/9/2005 8:49:18 AM
From: russwinter   of 110194
 
<total Fed repos soared throughout March.>

Not especially correct, but judge for yourself. First week of March was mostly under 24 billion.
bullandbearwise.com

The activity that was fairly heavy of late has been the Treasury TIOs, but that's now down to zero since the beginning of April. It's also very temporary money.
omo.co.nz

<John Succo thinks the Fed is monetizing the long bond.>

Unless they have a rat line set up in the Bermuda Triangle, I see zero evidence of this.

Weekly change in securities held.

12-22 +85
12-29 +53
1-6 +92
1-13 +3
1-20 +3
1-27 +2
2-3 +28
2-10 +31
2-17 -20
2-24 -21
3-3 -159
3-10 -184
3-17 +10
3-24 +10
3-31 +10
4-7 -191

Total last 16 weeks - 248

<Has the Fed started back up with coupon passes?>

Not a single one since Dec 9th.

Other than a huge two week surge Feb 18- March 2, FCBs have been largely MIA as well, with what activity they have conducted being centered in the agency market.

3-10 +1,642
3-17 +4,610
3-24 +3,747
3-31 +2,994
4-7 -1,661

5 week average: 2,266

agency purchases this period: +6,191

I think speculators who've been betting on "liquidity" injections from Uncle Ernie to sustain their various Bubbles are now barking up the wrong tree.
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