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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 157.75

+0.4%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (27876)	4/11/2005 11:26:30 AM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) of 60323

Hi Slacker, I think, Samsung will still move some DRAM output to Nand (and why not if the demand is in excess of supply and the flexibility is there) because their Line 13 (new 300mm Fab) is still not filled and they hope to use it up completely by this year-end. Line 13 is a DRAM only Fab, so they can move the production from existing DRAM lines that can manufacture both Nand and DRAM to Line 13 and free-up capacity for more Nand in the flexi-fabs. Samsung unveiled a 4-gigabit NAND flash memory chip earlier this year of which it plans to begin mass production in the second quarter. It plans to introduce an 8Gb flash memory next year, said Lee. Delay in 8Gb sounds good. This means Toshiba/Sandisk could be ahead in 8Gb if they maintain their original schedule. Personally, I am always worried about the demand. For now the demand for next couple of years looks good but Q-to-Q demand could be erratic and could be a problem and it can make SNDK volatile in the coming quarters. We have seen too many 20% hair-cuts in the recent past because of Analysts paranoia about GPM and expected Nand flooding:-( iSuppli expects the global NAND market to grow 8% this year to $7.17 billion; another 36% to $9.75 billion in 2006; and 12% to $10.91 billion in 2007. How does one explain the mediocre growth (again this is relative) of 8% in Nand this year?? Samsung said bit growth of 120%, Sandisk said 120-140% bit growth and with a mean of 130% bit growth and 40% ASP decline we should still get a healthy 38% growth is revs!! Looks like iSuppli is expecting ASP declines of 53% this year. Possible, but I hope not. -Pam

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