iso, HUI BEAR??
Did a complete 180 here today. I've gone from near 100% invested to my highest cash levels in almost a year.
This was the time frame I expected the HUI to move, and it moved DOWN. Not good, this was a crucial period on the charts. I have now changed from bullish on PM's to bearish, first time I've been this bearish since the PM bull began.
Years ago when the bull was fairly new in energy and in PM's I used to say "Salvation is in the Long Term Charts". Well, the HUI charts look like crap and the longer term you go the worse they look. No indicators, no patterns that are bullish.
Now the PM indexes have a habit of going to the brink of destruction and then turning back. As usual, I waited and then anticipated the turn back up, but this time it did not happen. I will NOT hang onto the Gold Bull when he jumps off the cliff. Show me something bullish in this chart:
stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyiay[pb5!b20!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9!Lk14!Ll14!Ld20!Lo14!Lya7,14,28!Lw25!Lc20!Lh14,3!Li14,3!Lm12]&pref=G
I've got a potential, imminent Devil's cross of the 5 and 20 month averages for the first time this PM bull and no indicators showing any hope. Unless the HUI picks up here and now it is DONE, stick a fork in it!! It could drop a lot from here before it regroups.
The danger in this setup is it suggests recession and deflation or at most stagflation.
Now this is just my TA Humble Opinion and I could be WRONG (I reserve the right to be wrong, ggg), but for me this was the week that had to be and so I have made my decision and pulled my triggers. If I am wrong I'm wrong, that is the way it goes and I don't care. I don't mind being wrong one darn bit as long as it doesn't cost me.
Each of you will have to make your own decision based on your own information and methods. But IF I am right, don't say I didn't tell anyone...
And if I'm wrong I'll be on market vacation, counting cash,
so don't bother telling me, ggg!!!!
Best Regards,
Roebear |
