Amy, RE: On a different note, regarding variations, take a closer look at VNLAE around I believe the July time frame or so and analyze those. The sentiment was overly positive back then because the stock had just momentarily increased and was higher so the sentiment was positive, after which Intc remained flat thru today. You'll loosely note too much positive sentiment in the call prices back then, loosely a 15% sentiment. Don't focus on this next part, but generally, if > 1 year, #months aged/leap duration / 2 = time erosion% = decay %. Leaving loosely 15% sentiment between then and now, once you back out the decay % as defined above. This positive / negative sentiment delta makes sense, when you consider Intc is generally more positive in sentiment entering the holiday consumer spending season, than it is now after the holiday season has ended. (Do not confuse sentiment with erosion decay %.)
I don't understand your "% sentiment" number, but back then Intel options were priced with roughly the same implied volatility as they are now. |
