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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Ilaine who wrote (61882)4/13/2005 7:20:39 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
Hello CB, You wrote to me on the subject of apologies or some such thing, a matter I had not commented on, because I have no comment. On the textbook thing, yes, you wrote about it, but you did not post to me, and so i did not see ... and now that I have, let me comment:

<<My guess is that most Chinese can't read Japanese either>>
... you guess wrong, because anyone who can read Chinese can get the gist of formal Japanese script given that IPR license fee is overdue from Japan for same. I get around the Tokyo subway system, follow Japanese language instructions for newly purchased grey-market import gadgets (instructions in Japanese only) without too much difficulty and I do not read Japanese, just the part of Japanese that is Chinese.

<<there are language problems inside China, too>>
... spoken words only. Writing is the same.

<<And then there are cultural nuances which are difficult to sense unless you are raised in that culture>>
... cultural nuances do not change history, and so we are not talking about cultural nuances.

<<my understanding is that German textbooks don't really go into a lot of detail about the Nazis>>
... your understanding is wrong.

<<Here in the US, these books are not written by the US government>>
... yes, but there in Japan, they are specifically approved for publication, distribution, dissemination, and teaching by the government.

Thus, it is in fact and in law, official policy.

How do we decide what is? Well, we can take a poll in Asia, and majority wins, right?

On all the hubbub, my read, should you care, is that each and every Japanese government wishes to change the constitution to one that allows an armed force for not simply defense, but like all nations, active defense/attack. The pacifist movement in Japan is strong, and so the government (never mind the government, the politicians) stir the pot (text books, shrine visits, Taiwan pronouncement, islands with Korea/China, etc) so as to create an equal and opposite reaction elsewhere in Asia, and thus create the sort of conditions in Japan that will allow Japan to have a normal everyday armed force to go with its status as the second largest economy in the world. This desire to have a normal everyday armed force is in fact perfectly reasonable, but changing history is not.

As far as the UN is concerned, a whole lot of nations ought to be on the security council on a permanent basis, India, Germany, Brazil, S.Africa, and Japan come to top of mind. This is perfectly reasonable, but changing history is not.

Japan, as the second largest economy in the world, is an effectively neutered military irrelevancy.

When, not if, Japan rearms, the fundamental conflict between Japan and rest of the world is in fact between Japan and its old enemy, the USA.

Japan attacked China for space and production capacity, and Japan now has a huge investment in China for space and production capacity. Japan attacked rest of Asia for raw material control, and that material needs to go to Japan's factories, now moving to China. Japan has a huge trade surplus with the rest of the world, out of its factories on the home islands, and supplier networks in rest of Asia. China has a balanced trade with the world. China has a nominally lopsided trade with the US, due to Americans buying, not because of China selling.

You were at one time of the opinion that Russia was and will become a great friend of the US due to some vague-ish cultural affinity, and I respondent, "nyet".

And now, you are probably of the belief that Japan rearmed will become a great and useful friend to the US due to some common concern about China, to which I again say, "The Japan that can say NO".

A rearmed Japan will be saying No, with a bite, but there is in fact no No's between Japan and China, other than textbooks, a device to get Japan rearmed.

What, do the folks about you actually believe Japan and China will end up in a war against each other, with nukes?

If not, then cooperation is an absolute given, and if so, cooperation to what ends, and whose interest do you suppose will get sliced and diced.

The great rivalry that supposedly exist in some minds between Russia and China certainly did not prevent China getting a slice of Yukos, or Russia from selling aircraft carrier toasting Sunburn rockets to China.

Then there is the great rivalry between India and China, now replaced by, what else, markets and sources, and strategic alliance and sphere of carved out influence.

So clear, as long as one's grasp of history is not based on romance. History is all about markets and sources, buyers and sellers.

So clear.

The FarEast Co-Prosperity Sphere is in fact coming into being, and the players are Russia, China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, India, and in time, ASEAN, all share one overriding common interest, "peace, prosperity, access to resources, and open markets".

When this monster comes into being, how much do you suppose the USD will be worth in gold, and what percentage of oil the SUV drivers will command around your neighborhoods, and at what price per liter (forget about the gallon measure in the coming new world order).

One can get a gist of the form of what will likely be, and logically so, by tracking all the trade inititives under discussions, implementations, with time lines, signatures and all.

So, let us correspond on what I wrote, as opposed to what you read others wrote.

Chugs, J
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