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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (5746)	4/13/2005 11:53:45 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 12411

It is with great pleasure that I accept and agree with your analysis. Oil has peaked! Speculators are left holding contracts for delivery well into the future. A Kee-rash is imminent. Exacerbated by Saudi's increase in production. You have to appreciate their greedy intent.It has been sold out into the future at a premium, and they intend to deliver/receive.So would I.GG The domestic and foreign oil producers have sold off into the future, oil at an above market price.This is a huge driver!! This has been bought up by speculators.When the surplus is apparent there will be no place to store. A collapse like the .coms in April of 2000 will ensue,with no place to go with the inventory. Not only will price collapse, but holding costs of tankers waiting to unload will be administered. This will depress the price lower than normal. Same ole, same ole. BIG QUESTION IS - where will the mad money go? Real estate?not in a measured interest rate increasing market. Cash - most likely and it won't pay much. Equities - he says with a glitter in his eye - but only after a final shakeout at an albeit higher consolidation price level - the best sign of a rising market. It will be scary - but it will be short ,and it should hold the 50 Day ma plus or minus 2-3 days?? My bet is Chief's gap is nothing short of pure genius plus or minus 2-3 days. Bob

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