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Strategies & Market Trends : Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (2)4/14/2005 12:42:51 AM
From: John Vosilla   of 361
 
Here's the big change in our minds. And we think it's super important. It's the asset backed securities market that was responsible for the bulk of US home mortgage financing for the year ended 4Q 2004. It wasn't the banks. It wasn't the S&L's. And it wasn't even the GSE balance sheets proper. It was the conduit ABS market that was generating the bulk of the liquidity. Furthermore, there is absolutely no question in our minds that the Fed is fully aware of these dynamics. They are fully aware of the circumstances surrounding the turbocharged change in residential real estate mortgage liquidity. Why? Because this is their data. It comes directly from the Fed Flow of Funds report. And, as you already know, the fact that conduit markets such as the ABS market are primarily responsible for this type of credit creation is one of the primary reasons the financial derivatives complex (primarily interest rate derivatives) in this country continues to grow at accelerated rates over the last few years. Twenty years ago, the ABS markets didn't even exist. Ten years ago, the ABS market was a rounding error in the greater scheme of systemic credit and liquidity creation. In 2004? Well, the ABS issuers simply took center stage when it comes to the US residential real estate market, now didn't they? On a combined basis, the GSE-backed MBS (mortgage backed securities) pools and the ABS pools make up a whooping 53% of total US financial sector debt outstanding and 17% of total US credit market debt outstanding as of year end 2004.

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