Semico's IC index points to recovery in Q3
EE Times
(04/14/2005 1:55 PM EDT)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Continuing to see an IC upturn in the second half of 2005, Semico Research Corp.'s Inflection Point Indicator (IPI) rose for the third consecutive month.
The IPI registered 16.0 in February, up from 15.7 in January, according to Semico (Phoenix), a market research firm. Since the IPI is said to forecast the semiconductor market 8 to 9 months in advance, this further substantiates Semico's prediction of an upturn in the market occurring in the 3Q05 timeframe.
Semico forecasts a moderate downturn occurring in the first two quarters of this year, followed by a similarly moderate upturn beginning in the third quarter.
"This moderation in the current cycle is a result of continued end-use market growth and a better job of managing inventory levels," according to Semico. "While end markets are exhibiting weakness, they are not declining. Both the PC and handset markets continue to grow, albeit at single digit rates. Inventory levels have been a definite factor in this year's downturn; however, the imbalance has not been as excessive as in prior years."
Despite current weak demand, the overall chip industry is set to rebound in the second half of 2005 and should enjoy strong growth through 2007, said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico (see April 8 story).
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