Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (61999)	4/14/2005 6:21:18 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) of 74559

>>Shucks, I though you'd be showing some humility by now!<< Why? The bear case is unproven despite much wishful thinking. The long predicted bust is still AWOL. The US economy remains the world's growth engine, with US demand creating large numbers of jobs (unfortunately, 90% of them are outside the US). US financial instruments continue to attract an ocean of foreign capital. US equities have provided great returns in 2003 and 2004. Interest rates remain low with the Fed about to cease raising the discount rate and the bond market utterly unperturbed by Uncle Al. Think 1995, Snow. Remember the Japanese scare of 1991 (Pebble Beach, Rockefeller Center, those Japanese manufacturing giants will own us all) and the jobless recovery of the early 1990s. Remember what happened after 1995? Well, this decade is a rerun of the 1990s, with the same economic drivers plus a large dose of negative inflation courtesy of China. I'll remind you of this when the Dow makes a new high next year.

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