Since Friday when I flipped from long to short, RYVNX is up 6.2%.
I thought we'd see a late rally today, but I was wrong, that never happened. I think instead we will see it early in tomorrow's session.
The 50 sma and the top rail of the BBs are at $37.04 and $37.02 respectively, just two cents apart. That is chart resistance also.
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G
BB width was 0.99 yesterday, 1.22 today.
All the major indices are at yearly lows now. Only the Dow is above the 200 sma. QQQQ is down 3% on the week, which is a lot, excessive I think.
Oil is trading back up over $51 now, but I really don't think oil is a major determinant of market direction. Almost the whole time oil has rallied over the last two years, the market just ignored it, with only a few short exceptions. Then, when oil prices corrected sharply, it had little effect---the indices sold off hard anyway.
Looking at the volume today, I can see evidence that we will get a significant relief rally in the next few days. I would not be surprised to see that rally test the resistance region beginning at $37, but if so, it will be turned back. Probably we will see some excellent earnings news or something that will seem to provide the catalyst.
Market internals also indicate a short term rally here, beginning tomorrow.
At the moment, the index futures are trading down quite a bit, but I think that will change before the open. We might see just a small gap down, but tomorrow will be an up day.
....all IMHO, of course....
T |
