Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (14393)	4/15/2005 12:36:49 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 25522

There are always people making money in the market, just as there are always slot machines ringing out the announcement of a jackpot. It is obvious that the slot machine win is just luck, and I suspect much the same with the market. The stock market is much like a casino these days with an excessive focus on immediate gratification. Luck does play a part in the process. Wasn't it Edison who said that chance favors the prepared mind? Even a very intelligent tribe can't know everything. But if we have done our homework and are positioned appropriately, we can open ourself to some pleasant surprises and avoid the dangers, which are painfully obvious, but which we do too little about. I think that I will not have the kind of collaboration I seek until the most vocal posters commit 10 - 25% of their market funds to a portfolio of my 8. As you and I both well know, that will not happen until semiequips have completed 1/2 to 2/3 of their trip to the top of their next cycle high. The frequency of posts and excitement therein will in themselves be effective leading indicators of the next decline. So what do you have to gain from such "collaboration"? I was hoping that you had the versatility or bandwidth to start blood threads on other industries. There is blood somewhere on the street every single day. My strategy is to be better informed and to develop a deeper understanding. This requires me to concentrate and I must abandon most industries and most companies. That is a good strategy. You are right to focus on what you know best. Until others do the same we cannot collaborate effectively. It's simple division of labor. Sam

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