Hi Auriculatus
I also noticed the sudden shift among the financial community but continue to stick with this chart; based on that an ugrade does not appear "unreasonable" - of course only time will tell.
IC sales are at fairly high level which makes it difficult to "create" growth.
However even under flat scenario IC makers could increase profits because they can cut cost according to Moore.
ML calls it directionless and rangebound (it's neither a sharp up nor a sharp down like we've seen it so many times in the past - again I'm referring to IC sales not bookings).
In case 2005 and 2006 is "flat" it would show that at least for IC sales the severity of the up and downs is reduced.
One might say it's maturing or one might say proliferation of IC's is becoming so broad that it masks the typical "PC cycle" - we have many drivers rather one big driver
home.comcast.net
Here's some "light" on what happened in DRAM segment;
DRAM pricing in 2004 was unusually stable in 2004 because they were struggling with yiedls;
Samsung is slashing price for DDR2 to force the transition;
Samsung applies predatory pricing on second tier DRAM makers and the 8 inch DRAM fabs will have a very hard time in particular in case DDR2 becomes price competive in comparision to DDR.
Also the yield problems that are now being solved for
110 should re emerge when they transition to 90nm -
and eventually copper.
As you know "it's dog eats dog world" :->
check out SNDK board - there are some reviews about Samsung results
DDR2 makes gains in market as global DRAM output exceeds 500m units in March
Latest news
Hans Wu, Taipei; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com [Friday 15 April 2005]
Global DRAM output grew 8.2% sequentially to 510 million units last month, up from 471 million in February, according to DRAMeXchange.
Most of the increase came from Taiwan and Germany, and a steady increase in wafer starts at 12-inch wafer fabs was the main contributing factor, along with improving yields for 0.11-micron process production at several 8-inch wafer fabs, DRAMeXchange said.
Infineon Technologies saw its DRAM output jump 24% sequentially in March due to expanded 12-inch wafer capacity from OEM partners such as Taiwan-based Inotera Memories and China-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC).
In addition, Powerchip Semiconductor Corporation (PSC) also had a significant increase in output, as its 12-inch wafer capacity rose to 45,000 8-inch equivalent wafers and it aggressively migrated to 0.10- and 0.11-micron processes, the research firm said.
DDR2 output also increased 20% from 88 million units in February to 106 million units in March. The proportion of DDR2 chips also increased from 18.9% of overall DRAM output to 20.8%, DRAMeXchange indicated.
DDR2 chip output is likely to rise to over 10% of monthly growth in the future, according to sources.
Related stories
Spot prices for 512Mbit DDR2 chips drop below US$6 (Apr 14)
Samsung slashes 512MB DDR2-533 module quotes 20% (Apr 4)
Taiwan DRAM makers: Migration to DDR2 hitting snags (Mar 29)
DRAMeXchange: Weak confidence, sluggish pricing (Mar 9)
DRAMeXchange: Post-holiday market still on the downside (Mar 2)
DRAMeXchange: Worldwide DRAM output grows 0.8% sequentially (Feb 21)
DRAMeXchange: DRAM chipmakers to shift more capacity to NAND flash memory (Feb 4) |
