The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: seventh_son who wrote (30702)	4/15/2005 3:29:21 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (5) of 110194

SS, I don't see where GLD has impacted the POG to the upside and I certainly don't see how lift-off is achieved in gold without winning over the masses. If you want any kind of move like real estate has experienced you will need to appeal to that crowd and it must occur when there is liquidity. To try to make it happen when liquidity is leaving the system, and investors with excess liquidity will be well-compensated (eg bond yield rising) in traditional investments will be challenging if not impossible. After the commodity cycle comes the bond cycle, and the trappings of the next bond cycle (for investors) is coming in the form of high yields. Are you somehow trying to tell me that in the bond cycle, when yields are 6,7,8%, that investors will shun bonds for zero coupon gold? When the gold lease rate is competitive with bonds, maybe, but in an inflationary environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold will be too much to win over the herd that gold needs. D

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