Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 256.89

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Dec 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14431)	4/15/2005 9:15:16 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) of 25522

This is like Fire versus Water... Excerpts from The Chip Insider®’s Weather Report: Order activity managed a small gain, but the rate of gain is slowing. However, there is lots of good news in our monthly forecast update. IC sales are moving strongly and matching our December forecast. We also can’t help but notice that so many who turned pessimistic early in the year are now revising their forecasts upwards. The evidence is growing to prove VLSI was right in having called the slowdown an inventory bubble and not a downturn. The inventory bubble that stalled growth last fall is clearly over. The inventory-to-billing ratio clipped 1.0 in March. Utilization is on the rise as well. FPD revenues also beat our forecast for March, which is another good sign. It is all gathering evidence that there will be an equipment order surge in 3Q05 to deal with shortages in chips. Shootouts turned down sharply, with only two announcements recorded. This was to be expected, as the quarter ended. SEZ continues to be the hot company, with Elpida placing orders for multiple SEZ 323 spin processing tools which will be used for backside and bevel-edge cleaning of 300mm wafers. Tegal received a multiple system order which included a 6540 advanced plasma etch system, as well as multiple 980 ACS and 900 Series plasma etch systems from a European IDM. We do have some things to worry about. Revenue per square inch of silicon (RPSI) is declining, but it is in profitable territory. Still, that means that chip makers’ margins will be constrained, which limits their ability to invest. Another indicator is the slowing Macroeconomy and more importantly the slowing money supply growth. But in general, conditions are improving and I don’t expect macroeconomic factors to play a role until 2006. for more you can visit the free section of VLSIresearch.com

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