In looking at BRY, I'm not going to try and predict price movement. I can set up some scenario's that might allow one to buy or sell their positions.
I think it would be reasonable to expect a bounce at $43 only because it's a long term price support level. If money flows don't start to improve by then, then any bounce at that point will merely be a pause before the price heads lower.
I base this on long term money flows. If we look at the CMF indicator, it is now showing negative money flows with a reading of minus 1. This is an incredible turn around from the money we saw being put into this stock through its Stage 2 uptrend. The chart shows that money flows weren't this negative since the stock was selling at $30 back in the 3rd quarter of 04, which saw the end of the Stage 1 basing and the beginning of a Stage 2 uptrend.
WEEKLY Chart:
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[d20040615,20050415][pb20!b40][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lc20]&pref=G
In looking at the above chart, the volume and money flow patterns are suggesting institutional selling. This equity is not going to establish new highs without institutional support. The retail investor isn't strong enough to carry the load.
So the question becomes, at what point will institutions decide to change their mind and buy this back?
This is a different set up than trying to talk the price down to add to positions. Pull backs on low volume will see institutions buying the dips. We're seeing huge volume days and suggests that institutions are selling rallies, not buying dips. The chart points this out very clearly for those who know how to read a map.
Charting isn't only about buy and sell set ups. Charting is the foot prints of the institutional investors. They can't walk without leaving prints. They can't hide money flows. They can't hide their selling for long. It's all recorded on the map.
My guess is you would need to see price drop to the $30 range to gain the interest of the instituions again. It's just a guess. There could always be something fundamentally that might change their view but once institutions make a commitment to unload, thay usually aren't very quick to reload.
dabum |
