I don't see QQQQ going much lower, except possibly very briefly, as I've said before (very unlikely, but not completely impossible).
The long-term regression channel rail is just below now:
139.142.147.218
I don't think that will get broken (except maybe one weekly close, two tops), because if it does, that means the long-term uptrend has changed. That is an extremely unlikely possibility IMHO.
It is possible next week's candle could be a reversal candle. I think it more likely will be a bullish hammer. It will NOT be another bearish candle.
Note also the lower rail of the medium-term regression channel, and compare that to the lower rail of the long-term regression channel above:
139.142.147.218
(or, if you like to exclude the sharp downturn in early January):
139.142.147.218
I posted several times over the last month or two that the bottom would be where these regression channels intersect. That is exactly where we are now, as you can see. That is why we are forming a bottom here. I think there is no question now.
The medium-term correction is now over. The only remaining question is when the uptrend will assert itself. We will see little or no more downside. But that doesn't mean we will shoot northward. We could chop sideways and slightly up for a while before a break to the upside occurs. That's the other possibility, and the only other reasonable possibility I can see, based on my interpretation of the charts (long, medium, and short-term), the technicals, market internals, volume patterns, and sentiment.
T |
