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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: NOW who wrote (30777)4/16/2005 12:31:07 AM
From: Taikun  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
tooearly,

I think we just reached agreement.

It won't happen overnight, then, will it? It took time for goods to be priced in USD from Pounds, and trade didn't shut down. How long do you want to wait in goldthinking the CBs have it wrong and will recklessly abandon USD without a replacement. That seems to be the catalyst for the gold trade.

So far the move to price goods in other currencies hasn't started yet, and when that process begins, I will absolutely agree that the USD has lost its role in the world economy AND it would be prudent to back up the truck on gold if CBs start abandoning the USD without a replacement because they will have lost their mind.

So, yes, global trade is at risk if the USD is abandoned without CBs replacing it with another reserve currency in *proportion* to their trade. ie. on a trade-weighted basis.

The CBs cannot make major adjustments to their reserves in the short-term. They cannot reallocate away from USD.

Therefore, the inflection point that favors gold is less likely to come from something the CBs do vis a vis the USD.

AIMVHO

D
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