" It is AMD that is "sparking the renaissance", it is AMD that "understands", it is AMD that has the "vision", and it is AMD that has the "ability to deliver technology solutions that balance artistic performance with the ultimate in production power."
It's pretty obvious looking at AMD's Q1 CPG revenues, that, in Dirk Meyer's words, "the Opteron snowball is not only rolling down the hill, but is fast becoming larger and is soon to become an avalanche. Unfortunately for AMD longs, the "flash debacle" is currently masking the spectacular Opteron evolution that is currently taking place, an evolution that is likely to become even more obvious when INTC posts its declining Q/Q CPG revenues this week compared to AMD's increasing Q/Q CPG revenues.
Equally obvious in the upcoming week will be AMD's superior Dual Core features vis a vis INTC's Glual Core resulting in additional AMD "snowball" momentum.
The combination of AMD's Dual Core intro next week, WOW64 the following week and likely Turion 64 offerings by month's end, with any luck, should not only counter the current "flash storm" but clearly delineate the likelihood of much "sunnier climes" going forward.
At the moment, AMD is confronted with negative flash company risk and negative market risk deriving from the likes of IBM and SUNW results which disappointed.
AMD management has taken a huge leap in addressing its current flash issue and SUN and IBM's results were reasonable and undeserving of the "pasting" their prices took on Friday.
AMD's Dual Core, blades and Turion 64 intro's have huge and positive implications for AMD's CPG revenues going forward.
With only 15% marketshare, superior product offerings in all spaces now and fast growing enterprise Opteron awareness, AMD is now positioned for some serious revenue expansion.
Once the flash IPO is completed and once it becomes obvious that AMD's Dual Core, blades and Turion 64's have little in the way of meaningful competition, the much awaited (by me anyway) price doubling will be unavoidable.
I suspect that the potential of AMD Dual Core, blade and Turion 64 as runaway successes in their competitive spaces will be immediately obvious once their features become broadly circulated resulting in some significant price strengthening likely ahead of the completed IPO date.
I also suspect a significant price pop upon completion of the IPO, perhaps in Q2, with some much overdue good fortune.
In summary, I'm anticipating a stengthening in AMD price to at least pre-Q1 earnings level by the end of April as it becomes obvious how potentially significant are the revenues to AMD associated with AMD's Dual Core, blade and Turion 64 offerings. I'm expecting this positive price momentum thru to Q2 earnings, and on a steeper positive curve once the flash IPO is completed.
AMG's CPG performance, as spectacular as it was in Q1, is only going to get way more spectacular going forward especially in the seasonally stronger q3 and q4. AMD's flash sucks and an AMD price relief rally is likely to occur once this millstone is removed from AMD's financials.
If the flash IPO is completed by the end of June (surely much of the planning with underwriters was underway in Q1), I suspect that new 52 week highs will be achieved either before or upon Q2 earnings release. |
