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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (30780)	4/16/2005 12:10:56 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Yiwu, the probability for anything to crash in 3-5 years is small -- there's a lot of time for good choices, even if none are being made now. If you think that the likelihood of a crash would be high if the RMB were floated now, then I'd postulate that there is pent up demand to diversify out of the RMB, because you won't be the only person realizing that risk, and so those savvy folks would want to protect themselves if possible. If, in 3-5 years, things go really well and the RMB can be floated without a crash, it's likely that the demand to diversify will have ebbed along with the apparent risk. As always, time will tell.

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