Hi Spreck,
Thank God you had some major wind at your sails with the across-the-board implosion in the markets on Friday. I wouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth.... it's not gonna happen again. Friday was the worst day of the year for all the indices, with the Dow taking triple-digit losses for the third consecutive day. To think that will happen 4 consecutive days is really, really tempting fate.
So my suggestion is to get out sooner rather than later; set a tight stop (between break-even and the current price, e.g. $9.70), and adjust it downwards at every opportunity. F is going to move against you, and the only question is exactly when.
I anticipate the markets will rally on Monday; at the very least, we will see little or no downside. We will know more from the futures trading on Sunday how the open will shape up.
When the markets turn around, F will move with them, and seems to have found solid support now (intraday) at $9.50. If I were short F, I would use the 50 ema on the 5 min chart as the signal to cover:
139.142.147.22
Note the intraday chart of the Dow:
139.142.147.22
Now note the $TICK:
stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyyay[db][p][vc60]&pref=G
and the $VIX:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][p][vc60]&pref=G
I think there is strong evidence here (and elsewhere) for a reversal Monday, and with it, F will very likely follow.
T |
