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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 119.17

+4.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Sig who wrote (174724)	4/16/2005 11:26:53 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (2) of 176388

October 19, 1987 followed an options expiration Friday, as was April 15, 2005. So I would drop your odds from whatever you think it should be to 1/20 of that. 3650 looks like you were thinking 1 day in 10 years. Once in 10 years may be too low, But if once in 20 years and only once a month on the Monday following expirations would be 1/240. An end-of-4/18/05 one-day decline of 22% on the DJIA seems like 1 in >50 years There have been many times with imbalances following options expirations. Many times people positioned large in the wrong direction. In falling markets people who sold puts to grab premium find on Monday they have new positions they need to unload. (In rising markets people who sold calls to grab premium and find on Monday they have been sold out want to buy back.) Short sellers who sold covered puts and are put the stock would likely want to reposition their short position. Do options and futures markets wag the market? I don't know. But in the short-run they do. What happened on October 8 and 9 in 1987?

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