> Growth in the U.S., the largest economy, and in China,
> the world's fastest growing major economy, as
> well as in emerging market countries has been stronger than earlier forecast
Continued growth & finite resources and the result 8 billion people on a planet built for 2 billions. We're temporarily able to feed most of that additional 6 billion by slathering 17% of our fossil fuels on farms (fertilizer, insecticide, and farm equipment) which increase yield per acre by over 4x.
Continued growth & finite resources will be our epitaph.
And when there's no longer enough oil? No one knows, least of all me, but perhaps we can all work on a list: what will disappear and when? Here's my first attempt, feel free to add or change or doodle in the margins with purple crayons. It's the new END OF THE WORLD GAME!
[1] Air travel will be gone for good in 10 years except for the military and very wealthy. It's half dead now. The 1970s oil crunches nearly killed 'em; but now they're starting off in a weakened position. The death of the airlines will have a cascading effect:
- means death of Boeing and Airbus
- lotta banks that finance commerical jet leases could be in trouble
- growth in teleconferncing
- death of Disney world; death of many hotels; death of whoever it is that makes those teeny pretzel packages.
we may live to see hydrogen powered jetliners; or just content ourselves with hot-air balloons.
[2] Coal prices (the commodity, and the stock market prices) will zoom. Historically coal tracks oil prices; to the extent it's contemplated as a substitute for oil and/or natural gas, its increase in price may for once exceed oil prices.
[4] No more meat. Meat will become a rarity. There's an ecological niche for cattle scrounging off scrublands to dry to farm; but with grain yield per acre plummeting no one's going to feed it to cattle.
[5] Dannon Yogurt will give up plastic contains, go back to those waxed onces with the carboard lids that gave the flavor name. Anybody remember those?
[6] Mechanical watches will have a revival.
[7] The bicycle business will boom.
[8] The Micheal Jackson trial won't end until at least 2019 because the prosecution will never rest, given Micheal the opportunity to rebut using the entire Mormon Tabernacle Choir. Upon asking Mr. Jackson if he has any statement to make, he will to a special dance; however by this time electricity will no longer be wasted on television. In th end, Mr. Jackson will be convicted, or not, but no one will notice -- by then everyone having bigger things on their minds.
[9] By 2021 oil derived plastics will be banned for frivolous uses. This wrecks havoc with the Barbi Doll industry which attempts unsuccessfully to return to the historic material for dolls -- namely wood. When in 2022 George "President for Life" Bush is asked to comment,
Meanwhile my self-funded research into a beanie cap -- headgear with a tiny umbfella to catch breezes and make electricity -- has evolved into beanies worn smokestack style. Peak oil is going to be great for the after market toy propeller market.
- tilyou1@yahoo.com |
