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Politics : Attack on Iran Imminent?

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From: Doug R4/19/2005 5:16:01 PM
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Unrest in Oil-Rich Khuzestan
Iran April 19
Iran's oil-rich province of Khuzestan experienced fighting last Friday between ethnic Ahwazi Arabs and government forces after a letter calling for the removal of most of the Arabs from the province, allegedly written by former Vice President Muhammad Ali Abtahi, was published on the website of U.K.-based British Ahwazi Friendship Society. The letter has been denounced by the Tehran government as a fraud.

The incident has provoked some fairly extreme responses from Tehran, including closing down media offices in Iran that are accused of insigting rebellion and resorting to heavy-handed military actions against Iran's Arab community.

What's behind the sudden turmoil in this region?

According to the letter, the "Arab population of Khuzestan must be reduced to a third of the total population of Khuzestan within 10 years, with the rest of the population to be composed of Farsi-speaking residents and migrants." It isn't immediately clear from the letter the reasoning behind the forced relocation but according to Al Jazeera, a representative of the London-based Popular Democratic Front of Ahwazi Arabs in Iran claimed that there is a movement to gain independence for Khuzestan province which borders Iraq. Much of the land making up the province was annexed by Iran some 80 years ago.

In another development today, the Tehran government shut down Al Jazeera offices throughout the country for what it said was the news outlet's inflammatory coverage of last Friday's clash. It was a curious move by a government that proclaims its innocence in the charges made against it by the pro-Arab groups. If it has no plan to resettle the Ahwazi Arabs who are mostly Shi'ah, it is unlikely that the Iranian government would take such a drastic step to quell dissent in the region.

Until more is learned about the demonstration and the true origins of the "Abtahi letter," it will be difficult to discern what, exactly, is happening in Khuzestan. Is the situation as it appears - a call for independence by ethnic Arabs and a crack down by Iranian authorities? Or is the Abtahi letter authentic and proof that the Tehran government wants to cleanse the area of an ethnic group that could disrupt oil supplies and provide a safe haven for intelligence agents from unfriendly governments? Further, could the U.S., which is no friend of Iran's, be a backer of the Arab groups in the U.K. who seek independence from Iran?

One thing is clear, this will not be the last we hear from Khuzestan.

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