To all: 1. TechData reported much higher eps. This is the first distributor to show an uptick in several months. That is a black mark against my slowing sales, higher inventory thesis for computers, which has been 100 pct accurate until this report. However, it is only one smallish co. in a fragmented industry. I want to see the reports from the biggies, Ingram and Microage, before I reevealuate. But it is a shot across my bow. I see no reason for sales to go up, in dollar terms, or for inventories to be brought down, but if they are, I want to know why. Stay tuned.
2. Funny thing happened at the track last night. I was sitting with my mother my main squeeze and her daughter. Some stranger walks up to our box and tells us what a brilliant handicapper he is and all the $1000s he has made on Exactas and Trifectas. In fact, he has made so much money that he sits in the free area with no view of the track instead of in a box like Yours Truly. -g- He was not obnoxious, but I was trying to handicap and he was talking my ear off. Unsolicited and uninterested. Then he said something that almost knocked me off my chair. "Yeah, I'm going to have to pay a lot of taxes this year because I own Micro and Compaq is taking them over for $100."
That caught my ear, and I asked him who the heck Micro was. After several questions and bizarre answers that got me no closer to this secret identity, I asked if he knew the stock symbol. Yup, it was MU. -g-
So, he didn't know the real name of the company or what they did for a living or why CPQ would be interested, but he knew they were being taken out at $100. This guy didn't know who I was, so I found it funny for a stranger to walk up and start talking about one of my put targets out of the blue. And it shows how much the herd listens to voices instead of doing any real analysis. BTW, I checked the Jockey Club and other areas for any of my friends who might have sent him over as a joke. But the track was basically empty last night, so I think he was the real deal.
3. Gateway may be down for the count. Not that they will go totally broke, though they could. The more I look into their eps disaster, the worse it looks. And there are no short term bandaids. The stock is selling at a price that says the fish believe it will bounce right back. It won't. Lousy products, high prices, poor service, and much better, much richer competitors are eating their lunch. Mike Dell says there is no price war in pcs. Maybe not for Compaq and Dell, but the other 50 companies in the business seem to be noticing it. -g- Gateway has no chance at all in the business market against Compaq, Dell, IBM, Toshiba, and Hewlett. Meanwhile, all of those cos are selling better boxes for lower prices to GTW's consumer customers. So, the amazing thing is not that they are just barely breaking even, but that anyone orders their stuff at all. I guess those cow ads are cute. -g-
4. Asia Tigers are bouncing back. Hooray for Malaysian Webs. True, it is only up 10 pct. since I bought it, but, with the scary stories that were being told, I still consider that a major victory. They stopped the no short selling rule, which was smart. And they waved their stock of dollars at Greenspan and he turned into Palespan and it is now obvious the US cannot afford to have the Tigers sell their horde of greenbacks. There will still be bumps in the road, but these tigers, Malaysia, The Phillipines, Indonesia, and Korea, are bouncing back from silly valuation levels.
4. Happy Boston Scientific. More to come in the health care area. Long biotechs, short equipment and big dopers. BTW, I didn't have any puts on BSX, but all the takeovers meant it had to crash. So, like a dummy, I missed another obvious one.
good luck, MB |
