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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis

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To: Stephen O who wrote (1181)4/20/2005 3:50:34 PM
From: TrueScouse   of 2131
 
Stephen:

Interesting speech...

<CEO of Codelco deliver 2004 annual review address in former National Congress>

This struck me...

<engineering and studies were carried out for the main projects that will make possible to reach a production of 2.5 million tons by 2012>

codelco.com

i.e. It will take them 7 years to crank up production to 2.5 million tons (from the current level of about 1.8 million tons). So, even with these high prices, the biggest producer in the world is going to take many years to bring additional significant production onstream. Meanwhle, China's industrial output is going up another 9 to 10% this year alone.

We tend to forget how inelastic supply is in the mining industry. I'm still long copper futures and looking for $2 in 2005. :^)

Regards,
Howy
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