France Constitution Rejection Worries EU
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By ROBERT WIELAARD, Associated Press Writer
BRUSSELS, Belgium - Europe's executive body acknowledged for the first time Friday a growing fear that France might reject the European Union's constitution in next month's referendum — a potentially shattering blow to decades-long efforts to craft a politically and economically integrated continent.
French surveys have shown a steady rise for a "no" vote to the charter that the 25 EU leaders, including French President Jacques Chirac, signed in October in Rome. The latest French poll, published Friday, indicated that 62 percent of voters will reject the constitution in the May 29 referendum — the highest figure so far.
The poll, conducted Wednesday, was published Friday in the French daily Metro. No margin of error was given in the Internet poll of 1,000 people conducted April 20 by the Market Tools agency.
A day earlier, a poll in the weekly l'Express put the "no" vote at 58 percent.
There has been no victory for the "Yes" camp in more than a month of polls about the May 29 referendum, and the French government's concern is evident — along with that of EU officials in Brussels.
"It is very clear the European Commission ... is worried by the turn of the statistics," EU spokeswoman Francoise le Bail said. "One must question if these results are really stable. But the trend seems to be there and that in itself is worrying."
French rejection could be a fatal blow to Europe's struggle to craft a more politically and economically integrated club and could destabilize the euro currency used in France and 11 other EU countries.
All 25 EU members must approve the constitution for it to take effect.
When EU leaders signed the constitution, they agreed that if only 20 EU nations ratified it, they would review the document. It is unlikely, however, they will wait until late 2006, when all 25 nations have held either referendums or parliamentary votes on the document.
Mark Leonard, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, said in March that "a likely outcome is that Europe's leaders will convene a ... conference to salvage the parts of the constitution that matter most."
The charter provides for an EU president and foreign minister, and a fairer voting system.
Few predict the EU's demise if France rejects the constitution. Yet the anticipation of a "no" vote already is taking its toll.
EU foreign ministers are to debate the union's 2007-2013 spending for the first time Monday. There is supposed to be a decision in June, but the debate is not likely to get started because of uncertainty over the French referendum, a Dutch diplomat said.
Officials fear French rejection may affect the increasingly EU-critical Netherlands, which stages a referendum June 1, followed by Denmark and Ireland — two members that have staged repeat referendums on EU treaties in the past.
EU-skeptical Britain is widely expected to vote against the constitution in 2006, though Prime Minister Tony Blair has suggested there may not be a British vote if the French reject the document.
Luxembourg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker said France will lose its pride of place in Europe if it rejects the constitution.
"It will be a rather long time before it finds its rank" again, he told the French Roman Catholic daily La Croix Friday.
Last week, Norbert Walter, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said a French rejection might spark a speculative assault on the currencies of the 10 countries that joined the EU last year and whose "accession process to the single currency would be delayed if not stopped."
Lee Ferridge, chief currency strategist at Rabobank in London, is less pessimistic.
"Europe has survived this long without" a constitution, he said. "There is much speculation, but it will not be the end of the story. But there will be a political impact."
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