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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 76.11+0.9%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (67742)4/26/2005 1:29:50 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
I haven't watched the Philly index, but my answer to a question like that is pretty standard. If you want to know if that was a fluke, look at the trend over the past year. If you see a sustained trend to the upside, then you know it wasn't a fluke. If the index was performing subpar for awhile and then we had one day of upside surprise, then it is a fluke.

Trend analysis is the key to things like this. So far, most of the U.S.'s economic indicators have been trending positively over the last 2.5 years. This has clearly been a sustained economic recovery and there is no end in sight to the recovery. In addition, the stock market has clearly been on an uptrend for 2 years. We've had a fluke down trend in the last 1.5 months, but when compared to the last 2 years, this could easily be just a correction before further upside movement.

The only major wildcard right now is oil. Everyone believes things would be much better if it weren't for high oil prices. In addition, many think if oil continue its ascent or even stays at these levels for another year, then we will dip into a recession. That makes a lot of sense to me. But barring oil, the economy is good and the stock market is good. Those are the conclusions the facts support.
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