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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
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To: Andy H who wrote (113)9/5/1997 5:19:00 PM
From: Q.   of 167
 
The AAII bullish sentiment out today dropped to 37% / 25% bullish / bearish. That isn't as low as the market bottoms in April and last July, when they were 26% / 37% and 30% / 38%. But it is a lot less bullish than the 47%+ bullish level that have been prevailing most of the summer, including just a week ago. At this fairly normal level of bullishness, there's no indication that the market is more likely to go up than down.

Andy, I don't have the II data yet (it will be in Barrons this weekend, but I can say that 33% / 21% bulls / bears are both very small numbers. For the II survey, the April and last July bottoms occurred at 41/41 and 35/41. I'm not sure what significance to make of that survey if everybody responds 'correction' rather than bull or bear.
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