Yes, I agree. Oil moving down yesterday and especially today with the inventory report, down almost to $53 as I write this. But the market is moving with it. Again, we see that the market has an amazing capacity to ignore the price of fuel most of the time.
QQQQ tested the support region at about $34.80 or so this morning, briefly dipped thru it, but bounced upwards pretty strongly amid a surge of volume (buyers).
This is the kind of choppiness the market must repeat for a while until it can work off the residual selling volume (not much left) and build up some more accumulation pressure (we are rapidly making progress on that front).
Until then, I expect rallies to be short-lived (2-3 days tops), and followed by what appears to be rather vicious selling and bearish sentiment. But the choppiness we have seen until now has had a definite downward bias, as support levels have fallen, then been repeatedly tested as resistance unsuccessfully, and the pattern repeated at a lower level. Now, the choppiness will be sideways or biased upwards.
About the time the markets have convinced almost everybody that the sidelines is the place to be (or short), then we will see a rally begin, particularly if the $SOX ever comes back to life. This will not be widely recognized at first.
I have no short positions at all, and my cash positions will very soon be committed long.
....all IMHO, of course.
T |
