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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 235.24+4.5%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (14676)4/27/2005 11:11:00 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (2) of 25522
 
If there's only a 1% "shortage" it can be catastrophic
Elastizitaet der Nachfrage - if DRAM goes up box makers cut down on memory content - if DRAM is down they offer "free" upgrades.
If inventories are high they dump -
looking back over the last five years: was there ever a serious supply problem/issue?
Remember how briefing.com was fretting on daily base how the Russian supplier (Yuko or whatever they are called) would torpedo the supply - going bankrupt. When was the last time the comrades were mentioned? - they seem to be completely out of the (supply) picture? But the "fear factor" is now literally "hammered" into the price of crude - no question asked (though some people at high level now seem to figure out that there is a shortage with regards to refinery capacity opposite to crude)
With all this self inflicted BS there is still a silver lining as it will force enterprises/corporations that are wasteful in regards to energy/crude to realign (does it make sense to advertise Hummers and a sports car that cranks out 390 horses with a V8?)
"Tech" should be the last to worry about the price of crude/energy because "Tech" is/was always the main driver to reduce the dependence on crude/energy according to work smart rather hard.
Refinery technology has been lagging badly in the US - silicon was probably the main contributor in reducing the overall energy consumption.
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