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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (23792)	4/28/2005 8:27:32 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 108765

HUI bottom level ? I mentioned before I'm just sitting at my minimum portfolio weighting in this environment...10-12.5 % weighting long. I've flipped in & out here a bit... what I'm lightest on is Junior's and those stocks that have been the strongest of late like RGLD, KRY, GOLD. GOLD (remember it has no SA/RAND exposure) is the only one with any real size for me, have a little KRY and haven't been able to add any RGLD as it's stayed too strong for me (vbg). Traditionally before we bottom...the leaders must break; so maybe the bottom will come when RGLD, KRY & GOLD et all roll under their 200dma, or bounce near it. I show the following 200dma %'s for: RGLD +12.45% AND the KING of Goldstocks is also +2.50% over its 50dma too! - RGLD refuses to break ! GOLD +10.45% KRY +10.15% NG +11.72%...THE Junior of late. THIS is an interesting chart people: finance.yahoo.com I posted a couple of weeks back ( #23792): Message 21235787 ... that my "WAG" for a HUI bottom would be 1/2 way between the recent 190 bottom and our former resistance level of HUI 150...which 1/2 way would be HUI 170ish. - we're not far from that. I've nibbled a bit...just 2%ish add here (got some HMY). BUT ! - if the US Dollar does not rally, if we keep getting weak economic data/news and if the broad market maintains a controlled descent...I'd like to re-add to a 20%-25% portfolio weighting + some trading "calls" on continued expectation of the US Dollar falling and a potential upside trading pop if the Chinese Re-Peg the Yuan. The danger nearterm, is if the Broad Market just tanks rapidly...say DOW 9000-9250 over 6-8 weeks; then I think virtually everything gets taken down along with the DOW including the goldstocks. A slow controlled descent is our best bet. @ $375 Gold & sub $6 Silver...It's Olivia Newton John-time re: Let's get Physical ~ ... I wouldn't mind adding a couple of great desktop paperweights, doorstops, handcrafted dumbells, lifesize sculptures (vbg) etc...

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