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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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From: Paul Senior	4/28/2005 1:30:15 PM
	Read Replies (2) of 78748

I'll add to my miniscule position in Mosaic, a fertilizer stock. With high natural gas prices, I'd expect fertilizer stocks to be down, and MOS is near lows. MOS was recently formed by the merger of two companies, one of which was IMC Global, a stock I've owned on-and-off since posting on it here in 1999. I currently have a few shares MOS shares from some IMC bought in 2003. MOS trades about 1.5x stated book. When times were bad for IMC Global, that stock traded below book. So there might still be quite a bit of downside to the new MOS, if past IMC history guides. There are positive factors too though: Competitor POT has just announced superb earnings. (POT is larger and has a less diverse product line than MOS.) Apparently for POT, even if fertilizer prices have risen because of energy costs, customers are not dissuaded (for now) from purchasing all that POT makes. There is insider buying now in MOS - small amounts, but by several individuals including the CEO and CFO. I'll bet alongside these folks and average up on my position with a few more shares at current prices. finance.yahoo.com

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