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Pastimes : The Big Picture - Economics and Investing
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To: Bucky Katt who wrote (307)9/5/1997 7:04:00 PM
From: Crabbe   of 686
 
I think I may be a year away from not working for someone else.

I take a very risky view point of how to invest, basically I find what to me is the best stock going, and then I buy that one stock sit on it till it moves most of how far it's going, then move on to a new one. In the process I become as knowledgable about that one stock as the CFO or nearly so anyway. Not only am I up 600% I expect another 600% in the next year. As I have stated many times in many places on SI I started this as my avocation, I don't have enough built up to make it a vocation. If I met my expectations over the next few months I think I will have to reevaluate that. The only thing that really bothers me is what once was a trip around the world has become serious money and money that will change my live style. Had I have stuck to my original plan and not gotten very stupid last Febuary I would be up 1200% right now (I got upset at the short term and forgot the longer term outlook)..

Should the market decide to drop, I don't think I will lose 83% and if I do I will still be even for this year. Worrying about that drop is to me a short term worry and the longer term has never been rosier.

Here is a link to the NASDAQ chart since 1972. It looks to me that we are in a perpetual bull martket that is 25 years old. On this chart the "crash of 87" looks like a small correction. It did however lower the trend line. To an new trend with the same curve. I just don't find anything to get excited about in the NASDAQ chart. It has gained approximately the same percentage year after year after year, there have been setbacks but looking Over all the NASDAQ seems to be up a little over 13000%. in 25 years.

Jumping out of the market seems to me a way to quickly become gun shy, and soon afraid to get back in. If you have your fortune made, and you've lost your nerve then by all means get out put it all in Muni's and relzx. Unfortunately or fortunately I ain't their yet.
Rod
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